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Your November Real Estate Update!


MARKET TREND HAS CHANGED. 

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE SUNSHINE COAST?

 
By now, we are all aware of or experiencing the Bank of Canada's attack on inflation by increasing interest rates, and consequently, brought real estate to a sudden and lurching lull.  What that means for sellers, is that after an extended period of enjoying instant demand from an abundance of buyers and substantial price increases, a degree of that gain will be given back in what is now a Buyer's market.  With fewer active buyers and an increasing amount of inventory, there is opportunity to create more value and time to be choosy. With these benefits, a buyer has the ability to negotiate better deals that can potentially be fruitful. 
 
Affordability across the board in Canada has been affected despite what is still a low historic inventory level. Sales will fall, and inventory will rise.  Lowered sales and increasing inventory are “leading” indicators, and it is inevitable that “trailing” indicators; which are "prices and values" will decline.  Quite surprisingly, we have not seen as much decline in "asking prices" from the highs, which may be partly why sales remain on the lower side.

What does this mean for the Sunshine Coast? 
 
Everywhere in the country sellers are realigning their expectations and we are seeing notable price drops across the board.  This is great news for buyers who as recently (as a few months ago) had no time to make a calculated decision, let alone find a property that was better suited. 

Buyers should be cautious to believe the corrections will be long and steep.  Covid permanently changed the way the economy works. In the past, local jobs drove the level of affordability on the Sunshine Coast, now we have a highly mobile work force that can work successfully from anywhere and the Sunshine Coast has become a highly desirable location. 

Once interest rates stabilize (and begin to decline next year), we will see continued attention from the “work at home” sector which will mean demand in our area.  We also have a notable number of buyers that were discouraged during the peak of the real estate mania. They will return in numbers as the economy settles back down.  
 
Baby Boomers who had been postponing their retirement had Covid reset their priorities. These people are aging closer to that reality, and the Sunshine Coast has always been an attractive landing spot for Lower Mainlanders.  The bottom line is that there are many factors driving the local economy now that didn’t exist 10 years ago. These actors are not going away.

Sellers may grumble a little over declining values. However, it remains a historically good time to sell, and a good time to pull the trigger on a move. You can re-situate yourself in another market for a price that is reflective of the general trend; Lower prices and increased value.  This is a level of sanity that we have not experienced recently and should be welcome to most everyone.




Both buyers and sellers will be wise to note that the current situation is not a reflection of lowered “interest” in real estate, but rather a top-driven policy correction that has adjusted affordability across the board.  Buyers should enjoy the moment and process compared to the past few years of craziness.
 
 
 
What’s Trending?
 
Over the past couple of weeks for the entire lower Sunshine Coast, we are seeing a noticeable trend to more affordable homes around and under a million dollars.  This is likely going to continue to be the trend for the coming months with entry level homes becoming more affordable and improved value at the million dollar mark.  Gibsons remains at a much higher price point than Pender Harbour with very different lifestyles associated.  Sechelt is somewhere in the middle with values that are still notably lower cost than Gibsons, although both markets are showing increased inventory in the range.
 
 
 
LIST PRICE:
SOLD PRICE:
HIGH LOW AVERAGE MEDIAN  
$1,649,000
$599,000
$1,056,888
$975,000
 
$1,594,500
$524,000
$1,006,277
$909,000
 
 
 
Thinking of Selling?
 
As you may have noticed by the graphs in "What’s Trending", the market prices remain near all-time highs.  In the face of the increased interest rates that have occurred and are going to continue, it is probable that values will decrease.  Sellers will always be as resilient as the market allows so we have seen a hard drop of 10% and it looks like we might expect a similar drop by this time next year.  In other words, it is still a great time to sell and achieve a strong return on your real estate dollar.  Sure... expectations have to be lower than the recent frothy 2022 but for anyone that is serious about making a change or liquidating a property, you may not see a better opportunity for a few years. 
 
Getting Ahead of the Curve
 
When you are pricing your property for sale, experience has shown that you want to price “ahead of the curve”.   In most markets, it takes a week or two for a property to gain market awareness.  In that two-three week period, the market will not stay still and will either be going up, staying the same, or going down.  The market moves forward so if your price is set at “today’s value”, then to be ahead of the curve you would need it to be a balanced market.  In a declining market, values will actually be lower in two weeks so to get the best opportunity for a quick sale, you need to price that decline into your thinking.  Sure it hurts a little, but it hurts a lot more if you try high and then tip toe down along with the market. 
 
In the past we have seen sellers parallel the market decline to the point where they leave a ton of equity in the rear view mirror.   And just like pricing ahead of a downward curve, if the market is surging then pricing where you expect might be in 2-3 weeks is reasonable enough with a lower price evoking competing interest.  So remember, price ahead of the curve to ensure top return on your investment.
 



Thinking of Buying?
 
Most buyers should be relieved to find the market settling down, even if the cost of borrowing has increased.  Given the shock to the real estate market of the interest rate hikes, we continue to experience slow downs across the board and with price reductions. 
 
While it may seem unwise to jump too soon into a declining market there are two things that are certain.  The first is that you never know where the bottom is until the prices start to rise and they tend to do so quickly.  The second is that in a balanced or even a buyer’s market, the buyer doesn’t have to deal with competing bids that can take the values of a home well beyond reason or reach. 
 
Buyers should expect a reasonable period to be able to make decisions and even plan their affairs with some dignity.  That is well worth a few points of market volatility and so as most real estate purchases are intended for long term use or investment, buying on a dip is prudent and a more comfortable experience.  How long and how low that dip goes is anyone’s guess but enjoying the security of real estate always has its benefits and it is a good time to take the long view. 
 
Mortgage rates will have to sharpen as banks encourage difficult refinancing periods.  The BoC predicts almost 50% of variable rate mortgages are at or near their trigger point, the level that borrowers need to dig deeper into their own pockets which is inevitably going to cause some pain.  It might be an idea to hedge with a short term fixed against further increasing rates but it is doubtful that the rates will get much higher or even stay elevated for a long period.  Best bet is to have a sit down conversation with one of the many great mortgage brokers on the coast to discuss how the market has evolved and what is now affordable.
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Sunshine Coast Realty Newsletter - February 2019

Winter 2019

Welcome to a white and cold start to the New Year!  It never ceases to amaze m
e how most of the country thrives in a deep freeze all winter but here in Lotus Land, we get a few inches of snow and all things come to a grinding halt. The same holds for real estate as the market basically has decided to ride out the cold and take a break. It goes against my sense that this is going to be a very normal year of activity so at this point, I’m not so sure that once we see the melt, that activity picks up quickly or if we continue to see what is a notable slow down. 

- Gord


Read FULL newsletter here . . . 

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Queen of Surrey, BC Ferries Sunshine Coast, Real Estate

MV Queen of Surrey (Photo: bcferries.com)

 

BC Ferries has responded to the voice of the Sunshine Coast in a manner that I can't recall happening before. Facing a scathing public reaction to a ferry schedule that was entirely unreliable for commuters and incapable of being timely, BC Ferries undertook the step of consulting the public on delivery of their schedule.

 

This sort of public consultation has happened in the past, and typically little change has come of it.  However, a couple things happened differently this time that it apart from previous incarnations. First and most importantly, BC Ferries was determined to try and align their schedule with a delivery that was actually feasible and reliable. The second is that over the winter of 2016/17, the clouds parted for our travelling community when BC Ferries was shifted to hourly service due to ship deck malfunctions. Suddenly everyone was happy – one could leave for the ferry knowing they wouldn’t be stranded at a terminal for hours by missing a boat.  This wasn't just a moment of bliss, but an actual transformation of lifestyle for many.  The overwhelming positive response to the improved service made it crystal clear how much of an impact ferry schedules have on our resident's lives.  This was stated loud and clear during the public consultations – not in a bad way, but in a celebratory way.

 

Humorously, I was invited to one of the consultation meetings. The meeting starting promptly at 6:00pm so the consultants could get home on the 8:20pm ferry. Of course, as things started wrap up at 7:30, many of us were in a state of amusement knowing the ferry had yet to arrive Horseshoe Bay for the return trip (running over an hour late). I asked the consultants where they lived and what time they were hoping to be home, to which both replied “about 9:30pm”. Of course, when I followed up with them the next day I found they had actually arrived home closer to 11:15pm. I welcomed them to our world, and implored upon them to be brave when making our voices heard. To my delight, the consultants didn't sugar-coat their report.

 

Thankfully, we have just been awarded a significantly expanded permanent schedule for the first time in generations. BC Ferries have pledged to expand to two ferries and hourly service as soon as equipment and logistics allow. They've set aside the infrastructure money and the ships are on the order table. This is huge news for the Sunshine Coast. And I encourage residents to take full advantage of an expanded service to enjoy a significantly improved level of connectivity with the Lower Mainland.  Here's the new expanded schedule and update from BC Ferries.

 

Sure I know we all live here for the quiet lifestyle, but I'm finally able to catch a Canucks game and make it home!  That’s big for a Canuck fan.  I hope we all enjoy a little more access to our favourite city or regional activities.

 

Talk to you soon,

Gord

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Some Key Information for the First time Buyer's Loan Program

By now most of you will have heard that the British Columbia government is providing matching low interest loans to first time buyers. This is a remarkable opportunity for many that have been able to save but perhaps not have quite enough for a downpayment. Here are the details: 

 

To qualify, buyers must:

  • Be buying their first home;
  • Obtain a high-ratio, insured first mortgage for at least 80 per cent of the purchase price;  
  • Have a combined gross household income not exceeding $150,000;
  • Have saved a down payment amount at least equal to the loan amount;
  • Be a Canadian citizen or permanent resident for at least five years; and
  • Have lived in BC for at least the full year preceding their application.

 

Key facts:

  • The loans will match a home buyer’s contribution to a down payment up to five per cent of the home’s purchase price. 

  • The maximum purchase price to qualify for a loan is $750,000 (excluding taxes and fees).

  • After five years, buyers can either repay their loan or enter into monthly payments at current interest rates.

  • Loans through the program are due after 25 years.

  • The loans will be due in full if the buyer defaults on a payment, ceases to use the home as a principle residence or resells the home.

 

While this program can be a boon to the right person, it's always good to exercise caution when taking on large amounts of debt.  As always, I'm happy to chat with you about how to make this new program work for you!  Call me at 604-885-4313.

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Sunshine Coast Real Estate Homes, Apartments, Condos

 

Listening to the news these days one is led to believe that things are slowing down, but some perspective on the numbers locally shows very strong underlying demand. Despite a pace of sales which is about half of what we saw last year, two things stand out: First, despite a marginally increasing inventory, the sales vs. listings ratio continues to steadily climb towards a Seller's Market. This is resulting in steady price increases year over year with well over half our detached listings priced over $800,000. Second, with prices escalating as quickly as they are on detached homes, we have seen very strong demand for more affordable attached sales. In this case, we have 70% fewer listings than a year ago as well as less days on the market. This, too, has resulted in a robust Seller's market and prices rising rapidly in that sector as well.

 

So don't let the lower sales and National forecasts convince you things are slowing down locally. This trend on the Sunshine Coast doesn't have much in the way of weakness and the market looks like it will continue to rise at least through the Spring and into the Summer.

 

The question will remain the same as last year which is, will the price increases hold going into the Fall and 2018? Presently, there is every reason to believe that it will.

 

Talk to you soon,

 

Gord

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From our RE/MAX Oceanview Office:

 

The April statistics show our Spring market is in full bloom. There were 67 detached homes sold this past month. That’s an increase of 13% over March and the second busiest April in 10 years. The Benchmark Price – that is, the price of an average home in an average area – rose another 2.8% last month to $532,300. This is due mainly to fewer listings, which are down 25% from last year. 


Apartments and townhome sales totaled 23. That’s the same number as April of 2016, but twice that of last month’s total. We anticipate more price increases as supply shortens in this sector. With land, sales increased to 21 from just 13 in March. That’s up 66%, but still well below the 60 sales noted in April of last year. It is safe to say that prices in this category are rising, too, as the supply lessens.

 

As to where prices are going, we can only assume that as long as there is large price gap between the Coast and Vancouver, and local demand continues to be strong, values will increase. 

 

One thing we can state with certainty: if you’ve been thinking about selling, there has never been a better time to bring property onto the market.

 

Want to stay informed? Be sure to stay in touch with your RE/MAX Oceanview Agent and be sure to read the Weekly Report.  


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Recent media is quite a mixed bag with one pundit admitting that they can spin stats to read any sort of preferred slant.  Shocking!  I guess this is the foundation of “fake news”.  What isn’t fake is that despite lower numbers of sales due of low inventory, there remain a lot of motivated buyers wanting to get into our Sunshine Coast real estate market. 


Markers that have indicated a continued shift towards a “Seller’s Market” on the Sunshine Coast, and it won’t take much before we see the same demand we saw last year which pushed prices up almost 25%.  Last month alone saw over a 3% increase in our benchmark prices.   And as much as prices are being driven higher, it appears that the underlying strength and level of interest on the Sunshine Coast is going to keep that trend going for some time.  This means the market is still offering good opportunities for buyers, and owners can expect to see their home values continue to rise.


The reasons for the continued interest in our market are pretty straight forward.  Much more affordable values compared to Vancouver; an aging population moving towards a healthier and slower lifestyle; and discussion of transportation to the area is raising our profile in the Lower Mainland.  These factors are going to continue for the foreseeable future and the overall Canadian economy is starting to follow the strong American performance of late.  The one predictable headwind will be rising interest rates and borrowing costs likely later this year.  This will influence consumer confidence, but the question is “how much”?  The rates will only rise if the market is strong(er) so I doubt we will see any major shift in thinking.


Bottom line, the good news is the Sunshine Coast remains a healthy market and the continued underlying demand will keep it this way for the foreseeable future!

 

Cheers, 

Gord 

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From the office this week: 

"Recently we’ve shown how there is more to our professional listing service than lawn signs and ads in the paper. We talked about our expert advice on staging, pricing and MLS. We covered qualifying buyers, dealing with offers and turning those offers into contracts. But doing this requires a skill that most non-professionals find difficult: negotiation. Many people don’t like negotiating. They find it difficult to advocate their own position and they equate the process with confrontation. They mistakenly think it has to produce a winner and a loser. This is where we can really help. We negotiate for a living. We’re comfortable with the process. We provide a buffer between the parties and we have no difficulty at all advocating our clients’ positions. At the same time we understand that the process works best as a collaboration. A win/win, if you will. The goal isn’t necessary to have both parties feel as though they got everything they wanted. It’s more to have both parties feel as though they got everything they needed. It requires a thoughtful, professional approach and a coherent plan moving forward. For more on our professional representation of sellers, contact your RE/MAX Oceanview Realtor. And keep reading the Weekly Report."


Sales


SALES THIS WEEK20 [SUNSHINE  COAST, ALL OFFICES]


DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

OTHER

15

4

1

0

 

PRICE RANGE

0 - 300K

$300K - $500K

$500K - $1M

$1M+

2

9

6

3

 

AREA

PENDER H.

HALFMOON B

SECHELT

ROBERTS C

GIBSONS

4

3

7

1

5

 

 

 

Listings

 

CURRENT LISTINGS:  499   

 

NEW LISTINGS THIS WEEK: 37        DETACHED. SALES, PAST 30 DAYS 

DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

2016

2017

25

7

5

121

54

 

DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

LOW – HIGH

229

49

221

453   -   1396

 

SALES to LIST  RATIO:  24%

  


SALES/LIST

RATIO  

0 – 11%

BUYERS MARKET

12  -  19%

BALANCED

20% and up

SELLERS  MARKET


*The Sales/Listings Ratio is a guide to market conditions.

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…Is what I would have said if April Fool’s Day fell on Sunday, but it didn’t so there you are!

 

Despite the wayward weather this winter, the market has been consistently showing a slight trend towards what we call a Seller’s market. With better weather we’re seeing now and our typical Spring market, it is quite apparent that we are heading for an increasingly tight inventory for the next couple of months. Exactly how much that affects the values is yet to be determined, but prices will see increases for sure.

 

A quick breakdown of detached houses Sechelt to Gibsons has only about 8 detached houses under $500k not currently under offer. In the $500 - $650k range there are 18 listed but only 6 have been on the market more than 60 days which tells you there is lots of activity in that range. Where you see the biggest bulge of inventory is in the $650-$850k range where there are 30 active listings. I think it’s fair to say that if over half of the available inventory is nearly $200k above benchmark ($480-$570k range, depending on the community) we will see the statistics showing a push upwards.

 

My forecast has been for gains for Sunshine Coast values and we are seeing it now. For the property owners among us, it is a good time to consider your options. The Coast hasn’t been this liquid for some time, and competing bids should be expected over the next few months. Hard to say if it will persist into the Fall because the market seems to be following long term seasonal trends. Buyers will be rewarded by an immediately escalating market but it’s going to be important to seek out value because for the next couple of months a frenzy mentality may reappear which will drive prices on certain properties into uncomfortable places. We are seeing unconditional offers in competing bids which is a tough place for buyers trying to make rational decisions.

 

As usual, don’t hesitate to give me a call if you or someone you know wants to discuss the current market and how it might be affecting your life and decisions. It’s always fun to share good news!

 

Talk to you soon,

 

Gord

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Buyer’s Market vs a Seller’s Market

 

Sunshine Coast Real Estate Active Listings Graph

 

 

The story going into the 2017 Spring Market is easily the listing count.  Despite hearing reports of markets correcting or facing headwinds, the listing count tells the tale.  And it is amazing how much difference 5 years can make.  While we saw a peak number of listings in 2014, the inventory had crept up after the financial meltdown in 2008 and a distinct lack of buyers meant that sellers were piling up against buyers and the market bounced around a sales-to-listing ratio (SLR) of 4-7% for a few years.  This resulted in 2016 numbers reflecting a perfect storm of demand meeting supply.  We saw historic volumes that we should can’t expect to see for another generation.

 

For those that don’t know, under 15% SLR is considered a “Buyer’s Market” which means fewer buyers than sellers and price pressure going down.  15-22% is considered a “Balanced Market” which means price stability and demand being met with supply and above 22% it is considered a “Seller’s Market” and there is pressure on prices to rise.  This past week’s SLR was 23%.  As we move into our first real period of decent weather in months with a listing count at the lowest level in 20 years, the picture remains clear – unless there is a major economic event, we will see a very buoyant market in 2017.

 

Buyers will be under pressure to make quick decisions but I think they will be rewarded.  Sellers will continue to be of the mind to make a bit more money.  As a caveat, the SLR is down from a high of 35% last year, and 23% isn’t a robust Seller’s Market. Thus, caution on price expectations is in order, but it is fair to remain optimistic that values are going to see a notable bump sooner than later.  The upshot is that if you are thinking of taking advantage of the market now is the time to act.  Send me an email if you want to have a chat on how the market is affecting your plans.

 

Talk to you next week!

 

Cheers, 

Gord 

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Weekly Report - March 7-12, 2017

Our brokerage puts out weekly reports highlighting important topics and statistics in Sunshine Coast real estate trends.  Here's the latest from the RE/MAX Oceanview office in Sechelt.

 

 

"It takes a lot of skill, training and experience to competently price a home. Agents must know the market inside and out in order to put together a professional evaluation. After all, there is much on the line. Price it too high and your home won’t sell. Price it too low and we leave money on the table.  Of course, it helps to be the top selling office on the Coast since 1996. All those transactions over all those years means our Agents have superior experience and judgment on pricing. The first step is to tour your home. You know your home better than we do, so we’ll be asking a lot of questions. We’ll have our tape measure handy, a plot plan of your property and a note pad. Once our questions have been answered and the data has been jotted down we take everything back to the office and the real work begins. How do recent sales compare to the subject property? Same thing for current listings. What recent trends are developing and who are our likely buyers? Putting all this divergent data together into a coherent professional report takes a lot of skill. But a coherent professional report is exactly what you need to help set your price and handle the negotiations. For more on pricing and everything else about the market, call your RE/MAX Oceanview Agent today."


The Numbers:


SALES THIS WEEK:  18 [SUNSHINE  COAST, ALL OFFICES]


DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

OTHER

13

2

3

0

 

PRICE RANGE


0 - 300K

$300K - $500K

$500K - $1M

$1M+

4

4

9

1

 

AREA


PENDER H.

HALFMOON B

SECHELT

ROBERTS C

GIBSONS

1

3

4

1

9

 

NEW LISTINGS THIS WEEK: 36        DET. SALES, PAST 30 DAYS 


DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

2016

2017

21

4

11

133

50

 

CURRENT LISTINGS: 489   

 

DETACHED

ATTACHED

LAND

LOW – HIGH

220

49

220

453   -   1396


DET’D  SALES to LIST  RATIO23%

                                                                                                    

SALES/LIST

RATIO

       0 – 11%

BUYERS MARKET

          12  -  19%

          BALANCED

        20% and up

   SELLERS  MARKET


*The Sales/Listings Ratio is a guide to market conditions. A value below 12% puts downward

pressure on prices. 12 – 19% reflects a balanced market. Over 20% puts upward pressure on prices.


 

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Snow & Sleet = Slower market

 

Sometimes the cold and wet seems to put a damper on real estate activity! Earlier this year I suggested that we keep an eye on the number of new homes coming onto the market vs. the number being sold as an indicator of where trends are going. At this point of the year, inventory has been slowly but steadily growing. We have seen about 17 new listings a week versus 11 sales per week for the past couple of months. This is great news for buyers who continue to struggle finding choices, and it is true that we desperately need new listings to slow price increases down. The upshot is that early 2017 is shaping up to be a much more balanced market than last season.


Should these trends continue it will mean price moderations and stabilizing values. Of interest, though, is whether the weather is keeping a lid on activity, particularly in the face of the coldest winter we have seen in almost 30 years. Conditions like this can create pent up demand, and market trends can change quickly with a couple of big weeks like we had last year. Still, indicators are showing a more conservative mood out there. Seller expectations remain high which sets up an interesting dynamic.

 

While I am still of the opinion that we will see price increases as we get deeper into the Spring, recent events signal that those thinking of selling should keep an eye on the general trends before getting overly optimistic on prices. That being said, despite the increase in product choices for buyers we continue to see multiple and competing bids on those properties that are priced sharply. For buyers, acting quickly remains both difficult and necessary if you see something you like.

 

The market remains very much in flux and the next few weeks should be an excellent indication of what we can expect for the balance of the year. Let’s hope we finally see some daffodils and sunshine!

 

Talk to you next week,

 

-Gord

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